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Fay Reid's avatar

Good thoughts Graham. Donald trump says all kinds of stupid things, but you have to look on them in the light of two things: trump is well into dementia, whether it is Alzheimer's or 'old age' is immaterial. And trump thinks first, last, and only "is this good for me" He has no conscience, compassion, or concern for any one except donald john trump. On Ukraine we are pretty well in accord. In Europe itself I don't see how anyone has the right to seize territory currently held be one country, because sometime in the distant past it belonged to some other country. As much as humans love to fight and kill each other for the past 10,000 years who the hell knows what "belongs" where. Looking at a map of Ukraine, Crimea is a hell of a lot closer to Ukraine than Russia. And for their 'need' for a warm water port - Russia has the Black Sea. No! Putin, like Trump and Vance is too bloody greedy.

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Graham Vincent's avatar

NATO, and its members' contributions, has long enough been a plank of Trump's policy to not draw me to the idea he's just spouting off. There is a real danger that he will pull the plug on Ukraine, though I think he has enough decency to broker a peace deal - even if it's on a take it or leave it basis - with Vladimir Putin before he does so.

Whether it turns out that way or not, it's a scenario that the Ukrainians will be mulling over at the present time.

Everyone needs a warm water port if they're to profess any kind of influence on the high seas. That goes without question: it was a problem in the east, which was the cause of the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905, as Russia and Japan both sought to capture Port Arthur in Manchuria (Russia's loss of that war was a factor in triggering the 1905 Revolution).

The port must not only be free of ice, it must be of adequate depth and contain sufficient infrastructure. Only Sebastapol and Odessa fulfil those criteria in the Black Sea. Sebastapol was under a partition agreement with Ukraine but Russia has now de facto taken full control of the facilities there. One rationale for the 2014 invasion was to gain full control over that port, but the 2022 invasion still went ahead, so it's clearly not a prime aim of the later military action.

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Fay Reid's avatar

Thank you for this key information Graham. Obviously I've never been to Europe proper, I spent 3 weeks touring England. Wales, and mostly Scotland (I am more than 90% Scot according to my DNA) My in person knowledge of Europe is non-existant. I have read that Putin is all in for genocidal destruction of Ukraine, but that was American news which is no longer necessarily based on fact.

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